EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (August 16, 2026)

ZeroHedge has mentioned a couple of good reports concerning the coming El Nino plus current conflicts that I can’t find copies of on the Internet; but the articles and their graphics do a good job of summarizing them:

💻 “Won’t Be Short-Lived”: JPMorgan Warns Next Global Food Crisis Could Erupt Next Year (ZeroHedge) August 2026 🗃️

JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the “Five Ws”: War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.

In a new report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.

And:

“Exposure is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, including rice, sugar, and coffee; West Africa, including cocoa; and parts of East and Southern Africa,” the analyst said, adding, “EM bears the brunt of El Niño. The largest food inflation responses are concentrated in EM Asia and Latin America, where weather-sensitive agriculture plays a larger role in economic activity, and food carries a higher weight in consumption baskets. India, Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, Taiwan, and Korea emerge as among the most sensitive economies“”

Furthermore, China has been stockpiling food, fertilizer, energy, and industrial metals. While the West has strategic oil reserves (quickly draining to offset the loss of Gulf supplies), it lacks a meaningful fertilizer buffer. With the Hormuz chokepoint still disrupted, crop conditions deteriorating, and export controls spreading, Szentivanyi suggests that the next inflation shock may emerge not at the gas pump, as seen earlier this year, but potentially in the grocery aisle next year.

In addition:

💻 Super El Nino: Famine Follows War? (ZeroHedge) June 2026 🗃️

Rory Green, TS Lombard’s chief China economist, is the latest Wall Street strategist to warn of the mounting macro and food inflation risks that a super El Niño could release on certain regions of the world.

In a note titled “Super El Niño: Famine Follows War?” Green warns that war-related disruptions to energy and fertilizer markets, compounded by adverse weather conditions, could create a perfect storm for global food prices.

In recent weeks, the Japanese Meteorological Agency [First Major Weather Organization Declares El Nino Onset As Food Inflation Risks Intensify 🗃️] became the first major weather body to formally declare the onset of a super El Niño in the tropical Pacific.

As of the middle of August, more Q1 plus remaining June fund updates (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) have become available along with new emerging market research:

🗄️ Fund documents / updates; ⚠️ Disclosures or restricted access e.g. based on your location, investor status, etc.; 🇼 Wikipedia page; 🔬 Research analysis (including articles/blog posts from fund managers, etc.); 🎥 Video; 🎙️ Podcast; 🎬 Webinar; 📝 Transcript; 📰 Newspaper/magazine article; 📯 Press release; 💻 Substack/blog/website article; ✅ Our own posts; 🗃️ Linked archived article; ⏰ Upcoming webinar or event.

📈 Contributors; 📉 Detractors; 🏧 Transactions; 🚩Discusses/mentions stocks by name.

Disclaimer: We usually use Deepseek to summarize or extract stock names and assign performance emojis. Like all AI, Deepseek is not perfect and regularly adjusts their model which can lead to mistakes/misunderstandings/misinterpretations of the data its given. Your use of any content is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the content.

Asia Frontier Capital has the following updates:
- 🗄️🌏 AFC Asia Frontier Fund’s monthly newsletter (detailed economic and portfolio) is from the end of July (AFC Uzbekistan Fund Achieves a New All Time High NAV – July 2026 Update) discussed Vietnam’s VN-Index’s heavy correction (which has opened up valuations), S&P’s upgrade of Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating, Georgia’s economic momentum, easing Kazakhstan inflation, etc. Named or unnamed performers/transactions (that can be guessed) discussed or mentioned:
  - 🇰🇿 KASPI (NASDAQ: KSPI / LON: 80TE / FRA: KKS) – Payments Platform, Marketplace Platform & Fintech Platform. 🇼
  - 📈🇲🇳 Natural gas producer in Mongolia
  - 📈🇵🇬 Pharmacy chain in Papua New Guinea
  - 📈🇴🇲 Fertiliser producer in Oman
  - 📈🇻🇳 Nickel producer from Vietnam
  - 📈🇧🇩 Tobacco products manufacturer in Bangladesh
  - 🏧🇴🇲 IPO of an Omani fertiliser company
  - 🏧🇲🇳 Bank in Mongolia
  - 🏧🇱🇰 Modern grocery retailer in Sri Lanka
  - 🏧🇻🇳 Bank, construction company, and mall operator in Vietnam
  - 🏧🇱🇰 Rubber glove manufacturer in Sri Lanka
- 🗄️🇮🇶 AFC Iraq Fund’s July newsletter (economic and portfolio) discussed Iraqi Prime Minister’s (PM) visit to the United States, an agreement to rehabilitate the old pipeline through Syria, the Strait of Hormuz closure, etc.
- 🗄️🇺🇿 AFC Uzbekistan Fund’s July newsletter discussed solving the iron bottleneck and the AFC Uzbekistan Tour 2026 (Sunday 20th September and Monday 21st September 2026). Stocks discussed or mentioned:
- 🗄️🇻🇳 AFC Vietnam Fund’s July newsletter discussed market developments (strong fundamentals, exceptionally attractive valuations), economic performance, etc. Stocks discussed or mentioned:
🎬🌏⏰ APAC Financial Markets Spotlight (FTSE Russell) – US/EMEA Timezone Aug 20 2026, 9:00pm Duration: 45 mins – Join Belle Chang and Zhaoyi Yang from our Global Investment Research team for our APAC Financial Markets Spotlight webinar. Gain expert analysis and actionable insights on the macro backdrop and multi-asset financial markets across the region. Don’t miss this opportunity to stay ahead of the curve and get support for your investment decision-making:
- Clarity around the macro backdrop, and multiple and diverse markets within the region
- How this diverse region is performing in the context of global financial markets, the interplay between the APAC markets and global events
- How critical drivers impact different asset classes across individual APAC markets
- Throughout the discussion, our presenters will draw upon key findings from our APAC Financial Markets Spotlight Market Maps report, published shortly before this webinar.