China & Hong Kong Stock Picks (April-May 2026)

As mentioned before, Ed Dowd (Founding Partner of global macro alternative investment firm Phinance Technologies) has been talking about this report in various interviews and this is the short version (to buy the longer China reports):

🔬 China’s Real Estate Crisis Is Entering Its Acute Phase (Phinance Technologies) May 2026

The real estate crisis in China is of unprecedented scale and has been brewing under the radar since 2020. Most economists would argue that the worst of the pain has already occurred with the collapse of China’s largest property developer, Country Garden, in 2023. However, I believe this is far from being the reality of the situation, which is akin to a slow-moving train wreck. This post is a rare warning that the acute phase of the crisis seems to be unfolding in the coming months.

The narrative of China’s economic might and resiliency is starting to be questioned. Economies of scale can provide an advantage when markets are growing, but represent a large risk once demand is not there due to a change in status quo (trade wars and lack of internal demand). At that point, scale becomes a liability as all the installed capacity and supply chains unwind.

Former China insider Desmond Shum (the author of Red Roulette: An Insider’s Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today’s China and who’s billionaire (now ex-) wife Whitney Duan (Duan Weihong) “disappeared” for several years in a corruption crackdown) has this lengthy tweet about how Chinese are rotating out of property into financial assets and concluded by saying: “The old model inflated apartments. The new model will inflate industrial capacity.”

Desmond Shum@DesmondShum

The Great Rotation Beijing Wants

Goldman’s latest long-run China report points to an important shift in the household balance sheet: the slow decline of property as the core store of Chinese household wealth, and the gradual rise of financial assets.

That view seems broadly

6:48 PM · Jun 18, 2026 · 32.1K Views

15 Replies · 40 Reposts · 161 Likes

And this other lengthy tweet concludes by saying:

China’s property bust is not just a domestic balance-sheet crisis. It is being converted into a global manufacturing shock.

China’s property bust is not just a domestic balance-sheet crisis. It is being converted into a global manufacturing shock. Beijing broke the housing machine. Now it wants the rest of the world to absorb the excess output from its expanding factory floor — and call the loss of factories and jobs “free trade.”

Desmond Shum@DesmondShum

China’s Property Crisis Is Becoming Everyone’s Industrial Crisis

Isn’t this crazy?

China’s property collapse is now hurting workers around the world.

The chain is straightforward.

For two decades, real estate development drove a huge part of China’s economic growth. Property

3:35 PM · Jun 4, 2026 · 185K Views

21 Replies · 98 Reposts · 427 Likes

Shum also tweeted a lengthy summary of an interview (that unfortunately lacks subtitles on YouTube – maybe a dubbing app can translate it) with a Chinese small appliance manufacturer that goes into excellent detail about how Chinese eCommerce actually works by squeezing “manufacturers at home so hard that the only escape route is overseas…:”

Desmond Shum@DesmondShum

How Taobao, Pinduoduo and JD Became the Hidden Enforcers of Chinese Exports

Here is an interview, by @Lin92922154, with a mid-sized Chinese small home-appliance manufacturer, with roughly 300 employees.

youtu.be/oZ0FCr846Yo?si…

It offers many useful insights into why

youtu.be

在中国做生意是地狱级难度:线上平台去中间商是最大的伪命题！

9:04 AM · May 18, 2026 · 16.9K Views

3 Replies · 24 Reposts · 74 Likes

Finally, Shum made this interesting observation about Chinese AI talent:

The last time China summoned the diaspora home on a large scale was around the time of the Great Leap Forward just before the Cultural Revolution – including those returning from universities in California where they had gotten radicalized…. Many ended up quickly getting “re-educated” in the countryside (e.g. The heroic but tragic tale of Malaya’s forgotten Mulan is a good read about a Malaysian family who was lured back by a chance encounter with Chinese Premier Zhou En Lai…). In other words, history may be repeating itself…

Again, none of the above is to say there are NO opportunities to be found among Chinese and (especially) Hong Kong stocks; but one must maintain a realistic viewpoint and understand where the investment opportunities along with potential risks are…

Stocks covered by a couple of equity research providers in this post:

[Note: On desktop browsers, an autogenerated table of contents will appear on the left side linked to each stock. I will add those links below after publishing/emailing this post…]

🇨🇳 China – May – Futu Holdings, Li Auto Inc, Xpeng Inc, PDD Holdings, CSPC Pharmaceutical, Kuaishou Technology, Alibaba, 3SBio Inc, Tongcheng Travel, NIO Inc, Cloud Music, Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings, Baozun, Kanzhun Ltd, KE Holdings, Hesai Group, Bilibili, Sun Art Retail Group Ltd, iQIYI, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co Ltd, China Life Insurance, CR Beer, Tencent, JD.com, Tencent Music Entertainment Group, Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Co Ltd, China Petroleum and Chemical Corp, Geely Automobile Holdings, BeOne Medicines, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Construction Bank, PetroChina Co Ltd, China Mobile, PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd & Weichai Power

April – Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics, Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Maxscend Microelectronics Co, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co Ltd, Ping An Insurance, Zhejiang Dingli Machinery, BYD Company, WuXi AppTec Co, Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic, Great Wall Motor, China Hongqiao Group, InnoCare Pharma, New Oriental Education, Shanghai Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor Co Ltd, Shenzhen Dobot Corp Ltd, Beijing Haizhi Tech Group Co Ltd, NAURA Technology Group, Ubtech Robotics Corp Ltd, Shanghai Longcheer Technology Co Ltd, Agricultural Bank of China, Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd, Tsingtao Brewery, China Telecom Corp Ltd, Bank of Communications, China Unicom, JD Logistics Inc, ANTA Sports Products, Yancoal Australia, Tianqi Lithium Corp, Li Ning, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services, Shenzhen Xunce Technology Co Ltd, OneRobotics (Shenzhen) Co Ltd, China MeiDong Auto Holdings, China Yongda Automobile Services Holding, Sunny Optical & PATEO CONNECT Technology (Shanghai) Corp

🇭🇰 Hong Kong stocks:

May – Kerry Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Sands China Ltd, Henderson Land Development, Cathay Pacific Airways, HSBC Holdings, Sino Land, AIA Group, Champion REIT & Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing

April – DFI Retail Group & CK Hutchison Holdings, MTR Corporation, Hongkong Land, Wharf Holdings Ltd, Swire Properties, China Overseas Land & Hysan Development

CMB International Capital Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank (SHA: 600036 / HKG: 3968 / OTCMKTS: CIHKY / OTCMKTS: CIHHF), has a monthly list of 20+ high conviction stock ideas – namely Chinese stock picks (see our 2023 – May, June, July, August, September, October, November & December; 2024 – January-February, March, April, May, June, July-August, September, October, November & December; 2025 – January, February, March, April, May, June, July-August, September, October & November-December; 2026 – January-February & March posts summarizing those) BUT these lists do not change too much from month to month. Stocks covered by the CMBI Research Focus List (May) (including April Additions & Deletions / May Additions & Deletions) and included in this post with updated stats and charts include:

Geely Automobile Holdings, Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies Group, J&T Global Express Ltd, Weichai Power, Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings, Chuangxin Industries Holdings Ltd, Bosideng International Holdings, Guoquan Food Shanghai Co Ltd, Luckin Coffee, Proya Cosmetics, CR Beverage, WuXi AppTec Co, 3SBio Inc, Ping An Insurance, China Life Insurance, AIA Group, Futu Holdings, Tencent, Kuaishou Technology, Alibaba, Meituan, Trip.com, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services, Greentown Service Group, Luxshare Precision Industry, Aac Technologies Holdings, Foxconn Interconnect Technology (FIT Hon Teng), Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd, Shengyi Technology NAURA Technology Group & Datadog

DeepSeek can be tricky to use on anything about China – readers can decide whether these insights or summary about these stocks are accurate (and its in yet another new format with the first output for some reason being in Chinese again…):

🤖 DeepSeek Summary/Analysis

Stocks That May Interest Investors – By Category

Summary Table by Investment Style

And as always, this post is provided for informational purposes only (and to make your life easier…). It does not constitute investment advice and/or a recommendation…

🔬 Research analysis (including articles/blog posts from fund managers, etc.); 🎥 Video; 🎙️ Podcast; 🎬 Webinar; 📰 Newspaper/magazine article; 📯 Press release; 💻 Substack/blog/website article; ✅ Our own posts; 🗃️ Archived article; ⏰ Upcoming webinar or event; ⚠️ Disclosures or restricted access e.g. based on your location, investor status, etc.; 🇼 Wikipedia page; 🏷️ Tagged links to other posts about the stock.

China, Hong Kong & Macau Stock Index

Frontier & Emerging Market Stock Index

🔬 Futu Holdings (FUTU US) – 1Q26 earnings missed; TP cut to US$145 on earnings revision for exit of mainland accounts (CMB International) 05-29 2026 ⚠️

🔬 Futu Holdings (FUTU US) – 1Q26 preview: softer earnings affected by interest income; net asset inflows close to record high (CMB International) 05-20 2026 ⚠️

🌏 Futu Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: FUTU) – Digitized brokerage & wealth management platform in China, Hong Kong, USA, etc. 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 2.58
Forward P/E: 8.05 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: 2.71% (Yahoo! Finance)

🔬 Li Auto Inc. (LI US/2015 HK) – Earnings recovery may take time after 1Q26 loss (CMB International) 05-29 2026 ⚠️

🔬 Li Auto Inc – The latest investment analysis on Li Auto Inc (DBS Treasuries) 7 May 2026 ⚠️

🌐 Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) 🇰🇾 – Designs, develops, manufactures & sells premium smart electric vehicles. 🇼 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 1.32
Forward P/E: 53.19 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: N/A (Yahoo! Finance)

🔬 Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US/9868 HK) – New models, robots, robotaxi as key catalysts (CMB International) 05-29 2026 ⚠️

🔬 XPeng Inc – The latest investment analysis onXPeng Inc (DBS Treasuries) 16 Apr 2026 ⚠️

🌐 XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) – Designs, develops, manufactures & markets Smart EVs. 🇼 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 3.05
Forward P/E: 69.93 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: N/A (Yahoo! Finance)