🌏 Southeast Asia Stock Picks (April-May 2026)

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As I get caught up on posts, this post covers 2 months of stock research from various sources on widely followed Southeast Asian stocks which could be a safer haven from the current turmoil in the Middle East…

And while there many reports and plenty of speculation about the (potentially devastating) impact of the Strait of Hormuz being closed on SE Asian economies, this piece is an example of why the impact is much more complicated than what is generally being reported (Malaysia, like other SE Asian countries, generally subsidizes fuel / cooking oil etc for locals):

🇲🇾 Explained: Why Does Malaysia Import Oil & Gas Despite Producing Its Own? (Says) 12 Mar 2026 🗃️

Specifically:

  • The only local refinery dedicated to processing sweet crude oil is PETRONAS Penapisan in Terengganu, the company’s first refinery in Malaysia, which processes about 49,000 barrels of sweet crude oil.

  • Several refineries also process both sweet and sour crude oil, but as mentioned earlier, local sweet crude oil is often exported for higher profits.

  • Yeah described this as a deliberate strategy.

  • “This ‘sell high, buy low’ approach allows Malaysia to maximise national revenue while keeping domestic refineries running efficiently,” he said.

However, there is a potentially worse situation or double whammy coming in the form of El Nino:

💻 UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia (ZeroHedge) Jun 04, 2026 🗃️

By now, readers have a clear understanding that the Gulf-driven energy shock is on course to collide with a potential super El Niño weather event, creating what could be a dangerous second-order shock to food supply chains around the world.

The concern is that extreme heat and disrupted rainfall patterns could hit top agricultural growing belts, dent harvest output, and amplify existing supply stress. Even before those weather-driven impacts fully materialize, global food prices are already rising, suggesting that fertilizer and elevated diesel prices are beginning to be transmitted through the broader food supply chain.

And:

UBS views on El Niño impacts

1. Agri-business: Tightening global balances and large speculative shorts mean an El Niño-driven disruption to India’s monsoon could reduce sugar production by ~3–8mn tons YoY and trigger price spikes.

2. Agriculture & Inflation (India): El Niño-driven weak monsoon risks (forecast ~92% of normal rainfall) could lift food inflation, though only ~21% of CPI is directly impacted, limiting first-round effects but raising second-round risks if shocks persist.

3. Health Care (Brazil): El Niño-driven changes in mosquito patterns could increase dengue cases, with prior events (2023/24) coinciding with record infections (~6.6mn cases).

4. Thermal coal / Power demand: A potential “super El Niño” could drive extreme heat across Asia, boosting electricity demand (especially for cooling) and increasing coal demand and imports, tightening seaborne markets.

5. Hydropower / Power supply: El Niño-related rainfall shifts could reduce hydro generation in LatAm and Africa, further supporting demand for thermal coal.

6. Insurance / Reinsurance: El Niño conditions are associated with below-average hurricane activity, which could improve insurers’ near-term book value but pressure pricing due to increased capital supply. In Australia, El Niño years tend to have lower catastrophe losses, though drought and bushfire risks rise.

Rising fuel and food prices can lead to economic and ultimately to political instability that will be exploited by outside forces with this tweet (full screenshot follows) outlining Indonesia’s predicament:

Although Thailand has a long history of military coups and political instability, the more recent political troubles do coincidently correspond with the signing of MOUs and construction of a highspeed rail network that connects with China’s via Laos…

But at least one Indonesian politician has also talked about putting a Hormuz like toll on the Straits of Malacca (an idea that’s opposed by neighbouring countries and unlikely to happen):

📰 Why Indonesia Floated a Malacca Toll (FP) April 29, 2026 🗃️

Personally, I love visiting and have travelled all over Indonesia; but when it comes to investing there, the IDR has gone from the 9,000 level on my first visits to the 18,000 level against USD – meaning investors with USD are running up hill. However, its been a fairly steady and predictable depreciation for the IDR versus the volatility I have personally experienced with the Ringgit and Philippine Peso (the Tai Baht always seems to range roughly between 30-35 to the USD).

On the other hand, Singapore offers a safer haven for investors with USD:

Specific SE Asia stocks covered in this post (with a focus on some countries or stocks that are hopefully more accessible to retail investors via Interactive Brokers or via a foreign listing – see our first posts – Mid-March 2025, Early April 2025, April 2025, May 2025, June 2025, July 2025, August 2025, September 2025, October 2025, November 2025, December 2025, January 2026, February 2026, 🌏 SE Asia March 2026 & March 2026) for the past two months plus further DeepSeek analysis of this post:

[Note: On desktop browsers, an autogenerated table of contents will appear on the left side linked to each stock. I will add those links below after publishing/emailing this post…]

Readers can decide whether these DeepSeek insights or summary about these stocks are accurate (as the format output seems to change on a fairly regular basis despite asking DeepSeek the same question and the input being consistent):

🤖 DeepSeek Analysis

And as always, this post is provided for informational purposes only (and to make your life easier…). It does not constitute investment advice and/or a recommendation…

📈🗄️ Fund documents / updates; ⚠️ Disclosures or restricted access e.g. based on your location, investor status, etc.; 🇼 Wikipedia page; 🔬 Research analysis (including articles/blog posts from fund managers, etc.); 🎥 Video; 🎙️ Podcast; 🎬 Webinar; 📰 Newspaper/magazine article; 📯 Press release; 💻 Substack/blog/website article; Our own posts; 🗃️ Linked archived article; Upcoming webinar or event.

Frontier & Emerging Market Stock Index

Note: Various DBS sites (Insights Direct, DBS Treasures, etc.) have good coverage of SE Asia and some Chinese/Hong Kong stocks, but some sites are restricted by geography (need VPN) or are harder to search for new research pieces…

🔬 Exploring Post-4Q25 Opportunities: What Lies Ahead? ⚠️

🔬 GOTO – First Net Profit Achieved; Regulatory Headwinds Limit Upside (KB Valbury Sekuritas) 26 May 2026 ⚠️

🔬 KLBF: Undemanding Valuation, (BUY, IDR 1,000 TP) (Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia) May 26, 2026 ⚠️

🔬 KLBF Equity Update – Resilient Earnings, Compelling Valuation (Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia) April 23, 2026 ⚠️

🔬 INCO – Anchored by ASP, Capacity Surge on the Horizon (KB Valbury Sekuritas) 22 May 2026 ⚠️

🔬 INCO FY25 Equity Update – Solid Margins, Strong Outlook (Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia) May 12, 2026 ⚠️

🔬 INCO Equity Update 1Q26 – Margins Shine Amid Muted Volumes (Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia) May 22, 2026 ⚠️

🔬 PGEO – Record 1Q26 sets the stage for capacity-led growth (KB Valbury Sekuritas) 22 May 2026 ⚠️

🔬 INDF – Resilient core, softer margins; inline (KB Valbury Sekuritas) 21 May 2026 ⚠️

🔬 INDF – Earnings above expectation; agribusiness continue shining (KB Valbury Sekuritas) 07 April 2026 ⚠️

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