FireKeepers Casino 400 picks, odds, bets
With just three races remaining in the regular season, the NASCAR Cup Series continues to move closer to the playoffs.
This weekend, the Cup Series heads to Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400.
Last week saw a controversial finish after Austin Dillon wrecked Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin to win at Richmond Raceway, clinching a spot in the playoffs.
Hamlin is the favorite (+550) this week at DraftKings, with past Michigan winners Kyle Larson (+650) and Ryan Blaney (+800) not far behind.
Will we see another intense race with the playoffs approaching?
Here are my best bets for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 (2:30 p.m., USA Network).
Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick to finish top-five (+250, Caesars)
Hamlin enters the race as the favorite, and for good reason.
He has six straight finishes of sixth or better at Michigan.
He also has been the fastest driver on high-speed tracks in 2024.
Reddick has been the most consistent driver in NASCAR in the Summer.
He has one finish worse than eighth in his past 10 races, including four top-threes in his past five.
Reddick also has excelled on the high speed tracks, ranking top-two in speed at Las Vegas and Texas.
He nearly won at Michigan last season but had a flat tire while leading.
I expect both drivers to contend Sunday, with a top-five finish acting as their floor.
Bubba Wallace top-10 finish (+100, FanDuel)
The playoff cutline has moved tremendously over the past two months, with Austin Cindric, Logano, Alex Bowman and Austin Dillon winning their way into the playoffs.
Theoretically, that should have cost Wallace a playoff spot, but that hasn’t been the case.
With a three-point edge on Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher for the final playoff spot, Wallace has finished in the top 10 in four of his past five races.
Over the past two Michigan races, Wallace ranks third among all drivers in total speed.
That includes a runner-up finish in the 2022 race.
Wallace needs every point he can get to stay in the playoffs.
He should have the speed to score another top-10 finish.
Ross Chastain over Alex Bowman (+110, Caesars)
Chastain suddenly finds himself below the playoff cutline with just three races until the end of the regular season.
He had a good bounce-back effort last week with his third top-five of the season.
Chastain has been consistently good on high-speed tracks in 2024, posting top-10 speed in three straight races.
Meanwhile, Alex Bowman only has one race at the track type with a top-10 speed ranking.
The Michigan stats favor Chastain, who displayed top-10 speed in the past two races.
Bowman ranked 15th and 13th, respectively.
Chastain desperately needs a good run, while Bowman is already locked into the playoffs.
That motivation and past speed advantage have me leaning toward Chastain at Michigan.
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Top Ford: Chris Buescher (+475, bet365)
The third driver in the battle for the final playoff spot is Buescher.
He’s been fading lately, posting four straight finishes outside the top 10. Those fortunes should change at Michigan.
Last season, Buescher led 52 laps en route to his first victory at Michigan.
The win was no fluke, as he displayed the third-best speed. He also had top-five speed this season at Las Vegas and Kansas.
Buescher has had the fastest Ford over the past two Michigan races and high-speed tracks in 2024.
Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski should be his biggest challengers, but there’s a ton of value on Buescher.
I like his chances to pace the Ford group and potentially compete for a top-five finish.
