Now, we hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, and the focus is back on the data. This week is full of data that will outline the pace of economic weakness.
Consumer data will show personal income growth lagging behind spending, but confidence remains steady. The Fed’s favorite inflation data is also expected to show steady monthly growth. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will show that private sector hiring is cooling.
Over the weekend, the focus will be on U.S.-China relations. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will meet Chinese officials in an effort to ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
This week will also be filled with Fed speeches. On Monday and Tuesday, Barr talked about banking services.On Thursday, we heard from Bostic and Collins, while On Friday, Bostic spoke hours before the non-farm payrolls report, while Mester spoke later in the morning on inflation.
There will be a lot of data releases next week, but there are a few numbers worth noting. Most notable was Thursday’s HICP flash forecast for the Eurozone, where headline and core levels are expected to decline slightly.
There will be data releases from individual countries in the days leading up to that, which could indicate whether Thursday’s figure will beat or miss expectations.
The ECB will also publish its accounts on Thursday, which will be interesting considering markets are now viewing the rate decision at the next meeting as a coin toss between 25 basis points with no change.
The week kicks off with a bank holiday and nothing has been more exciting since. There will be some tertiary data on Thursday and Friday, with the BoE’s Huw Pill in attendance.
Next week will provide a slew of economic data, including Wednesday’s unemployment rate, Thursday’s GDP and Friday’s manufacturing PMI.
With no major events happening next week, Thursday’s PPI was the only noteworthy data. Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure fell to 4.8%, well below the SARB’s 3-6% target range, while July’s monthly figure was much lower at 0.9%.
The CBRT surprised markets last week with a much larger-than-expected rate hike, raising the repo rate to 25% from 17.5%. If history is any example, the move could leave central bankers out of work, with President Erdogan openly expressing his dislike for rate hikes.
That said, he did hire these people shortly after his election victory, so perhaps with his support, he might be more open about it while still being vocal about it. There is little data available this week, with Thursday’s GDP being the only one of note.
Inflation data on Friday is expected to show prices rising at an annual rate of 1.5%, slightly lower than in July and well below the SNB’s 2% target.
However, the central bank does not seem satisfied, the market has fully priced in the possibility of raising interest rates in September, the possibility of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 32%.
There will also be manufacturing PMI releases on Friday, retail sales data on Thursday, and the KoF economic barometer and economic forecasts on Wednesday.
There are only three key economic data to watch next week. First, the National Bureau of Statistics’ manufacturing and services PMIs for August will be released on Thursday. Manufacturing is expected to contract again, at 49.5, almost unchanged from July’s 49.5.
If the outcome is as expected, it would be the fifth straight month of negative manufacturing activity as China grapples with a weak external environment and domestic financial contagion risks from debt-laden property developers.
Second, the NBS services PMI for August is expected to remain surprisingly resilient at 51, almost unchanged from July’s 51.5. The services sector remains in expansion mode, albeit at a slower pace, likely supported by domestic tourism.
Third, the Caixin August manufacturing PMI (including SMEs) will be released on Friday, September 1.
The consensus estimate was for a contraction of 49.5, almost unchanged from July’s 49.2. If the outcome is as expected, it will be the second consecutive month of negative growth.
Starting from this Saturday (August 26), China Merchants Bank (OTCPK: CIHKY) and Bank of Communications (OTCPK: BCMXY) will release a series of important financial reports, followed by release; BYD (OTCPK: BYDDF) (Monday, August 28) ), Ping An Insurance (OTCPK: PNGAY), NIO (NIO), Country Garden (OTCPK: CTRYF) (Tuesday, Aug. 29), Agricultural Bank of China (OTCPK: ACGBY) (Wednesday, Aug. 30), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (OTCPK:IDCBY), Bank of China (OTCPK:BACHF), China Minsheng Bank (OTCPK:CGMBF) (Thursday, Aug. 31).
In addition, market participants will also focus on fiscal stimulus to defuse the $23 trillion debt bomb owed by local governments, financial institutions and real estate developers.
On Friday, August 25, Chinese policy makers announced further relaxation of home mortgage lending policies, scrapping a rule in major cities that first-time homebuyers who have fully paid off their mortgages are considered first-time homebuyers. Drive residential transactions.
There are two key figures to watch out for. The second-quarter GDP was released on Thursday, and the market generally expects that economic growth in the second quarter will further expand to 7% year-on-year, further accelerating from 6.1% year-on-year in the first quarter.
Finally, the manufacturing PMI for August is due on Friday and is expected to come in at 57, almost unchanged from July’s 57.7, which would indicate a 26th straight month of expansion in manufacturing activity.
Retail sales for July, due on Monday, rebounded to 0.3% mom from -0.8% in June.
On Wednesday, the key July CPI indicator is due, with consensus forecasts dropping again to 5.2% from 5.4% in June.
If the results are as expected, the RBA may have more reasons to justify the suspension of interest rates at 4.1% for the current two consecutive meetings. Its next monetary policy meeting is on September 5th, and as of August 24th, ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures had lowered the probability of a rate cut from 12% to 3.85% (25 basis points).
It’s been a quiet week, with Thursday’s focus on ANZ’s August Business Confidence Index and Friday’s focus on ANZ’s August Consumer Confidence Index.
Action will take place midweek. Wednesday’s August consumer confidence index is expected to come in at 37.2, almost unchanged from July’s 37.1.
On Thursday, we will release data on retail sales and industrial production for July. Retail sales growth is expected to edge down to 5.4% YoY from 5.9% YoY in June. Meanwhile, industrial production is expected to contract -1.4% MoM from 2.4% in June and -0.7% YoY from 0% in June.
The only key data to monitor is Tuesday’s July producer price index, which is expected to post another month of negative year-on-year growth, slowing the pace of contraction from -14.3% in June. This would be the seventh straight month of decline.
Saturday 26 August
Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium concludes with speech from BoE Broadbent
Sunday, August 27
China Industrial Profits
US Secretary of Commerce Raimondo Meets with Chinese Officials
Monday 28 August
Australian retail sales
ECB Presidents Nagel, Dekos and Holzmann and Danish Central Bank President Signe Krogstrup speak at the Forum in Alpbach, Tyrol, Austria
UK financial markets were closed for the summer bank holiday.
Tuesday 29 August
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
GDP of the Czech Republic
Japanese unemployment rate
Mexico International Reserves, Gross Domestic Product
UK foreign secretary makes clever visit to China to discuss Ukraine war
US President Biden to host Costa Rican President Chavez at the White House
Bank of Finland Monetary Policy Press Conference
U.S. bank watchdog expected to impose requirements on smaller banks
EU defense ministers hold informal meeting in Spain
Wednesday 30 August
US Q2 GDP (preliminary), wholesale inventories, pending home sales
Australian CPI, building permits
Eurozone economic confidence, new car registrations, consumer confidence
German Consumer Price Index
New Zealand Building Permits
Russia unemployment rate
Spanish Consumer Price Index
Bank of China Earnings
Thursday, August 31
US personal spending and income, initial jobless claims
China’s manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
Eurozone Consumer Price Index, Unemployment Rate
French CPI, GDP
German Unemployment Rate
Hong Kong retail sales
GDP of India
Italian unemployment rate, consumer price index
Japanese industrial production, retail sales
Poland Consumer Price Index
South Africa Trade Balance
ECB releases minutes of July monetary policy meeting
EU foreign ministers meet in Toldio, Spain
ECB President Schnabel speaks at ECB-Cleveland Fed inflation meeting
European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos speaks at a seminar organized by the Menedez Pelayo International University of Santander, Spain
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill and Fed Chairman Bostic speak at the South African Reserve Bank’s biennial meeting
Friday September 1
US unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, light vehicle sales, ISM manufacturing, construction spending.
canadian gross domestic product
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
European Manufacturing PMI Final: Eurozone, Germany, France and UK
GDP of Hungary
Indian Manufacturing PMI
GDP of Italy
Singapore to hold presidential election
South African Reserve Bank Governor Kganyago, Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic and Bank of England Governor Hugh Peel speak at the South African Reserve Bank Conference
Fed Collins speaks on role of community colleges at virtual event
Ambrosetti Forum, Italy
Sovereign Rating Update:
Editor’s note: Summary points for this article were selected by the Seeking Alpha editors.