Domestic markets are likely to open flat on Friday despite positive global sentiment. Analysts said holiday sentiment kept activity subdued.
Gift Nifty price was at 19640 points, marking a good opening, with Nifty October futures closing at 19,524 points.
INDIAVIX, known as the fear indicator, gained 6.30% during the September series, rising from 12.06 to the 12.82 level, causing great unease for the bulls.
The alternative and quantitative research firm said the September series unfolded like a riveting drama, with plot twists and turns that kept participants on the edge of their seats. “In the first half, the Nifty index soared to record highs, creating a sense of euphoria. However, there was a dramatic reversal of the script, with the index plunging 700 points in the second half after peaking at 20,222 points on September 15. Although After a roller-coaster ride, the Nifty ended the September derivatives series with a gain of 300 points/1.4%. This marked the fifth positive F&O expiration in the past six series, showing the market’s resilience, ” it added.
Ashwin Ramani, derivatives analyst at SAMCO Securities, said: The foreign portfolio investor (FPI) long-short ratio increased from 50.50% on August 31 to 66.38% on September 13 before falling to 30.53% on the last day of 2019. The September expiration indicates that FPIs now hold more short than long positions in index futures. “The call ratio, a sentiment indicator, also rose from 0.70 on August 31 to 1.54 on September 12, before strong call writing at higher levels lowered the ratio to 0.70 on September 28.”
In terms of options expiring in October, the 19,500-strike put has the highest open interest at 52,02,000 contracts, followed by the 19,000-strike put with 34,46,150 contracts. In terms of call options, the 20,000 call option has the highest open interest at 23,14,100 contracts, followed by the 20,500 call option with a strike price of 20,27,100 contracts, he added.
In an exciting series, the benchmark Nifty index gained 1.4 per cent to close at 19,524 points and the Nifty Bank gained 70 basis points to close at 44,301 points. During this rally, the midcap and smallcap indices took center stage, outperforming the benchmark with gains of 2.5% and 3.1% respectively, according to Nuvama research.
Broader markets such as Nifty Midcap100/Nifty Smallcap100 also saw a meltdown on concerns that interest rates may remain elevated for a longer period. The India VIX surged sharply to the 13 level, last seen in May 2023, and then stabilized at 12.8. “All sectors posted losses, with the IT and FMCG sectors recording the steepest fall of nearly 2 per cent. Going forward, the weakness in the market is likely to continue until there is a response to rising oil prices and Concerns about rising interest rates remain, posing risks to the earnings growth trajectory. “