Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off a new week, a new month, and a new quarter with a solid bullish push above $28,000.
The largest cryptocurrency faces the ‘Uptober’ with its best weekly close since mid-August – what happens next?
After mixed BTC price action in September, market participants have braced themselves for a potentially volatile monthly close, but ultimately, this will work in the favor of the bulls.
With Bitcoin prices regularly seeing significant gains in October, there is excitement about what might happen in the coming weeks.
Macro triggers may not provide an immediate answer, as October began with a quiet phase in U.S. macro data and a government shutdown was averted at the last minute.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin fundamentals have yet to respond to the surge in spot prices, with mining difficulty actually falling due to the next automatic adjustment on October 2.
Cointelegraph explores these topics and more in its weekly BTC price catalysts digest.
Bitcoin Bulls Acknowledge Bitcoin Price Reversal Risk
Ahead of the weekly close on October 1, Bitcoin has cleared the monthly candle from the end of September – with little overall movement.
Everything changed as the week came to an end, with a sudden surge in Bitcoin prices that took the price below $28,000. In the following hours, Bitstamp made a new local high of $28,451.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirm that the largest cryptocurrency is up more than 5% since October 1.
The move produced Bitcoin’s highest weekly close since mid-August, offsetting weakness since then.
Michaël van de Poppe, CEO and Founder of MNTrading “Bitcoin Back to $28,000” Tell There are X subscribers that day.
“There could be a complete pullback, but the trend is clearly upward. Every consolidation in Bitcoin will be a period when altcoins start to follow Bitcoin’s path. This quarter is going to be interesting!”
Popular trader Skew similarly pointed to the possibility of a decline, citing exchange order book trends as evidence.
“The order book here is pretty broad in terms of available/static liquidity,” he explained same day.
“In my opinion, the larger price reaction is coming from increased liquidity in the spot order book; meaning spot buyers will need larger volumes to clear $28,000-$29,000 (market structure shift).”
He added that the driving force in determining the direction of the market now lies with spot traders.
Bitcoin USD Total CVD and Delta
At present, selling pressure is mainly seen on sustainable operators.
Prices fall as Perp CVD declines and Perp sales delta picks up
The next move that determines the fate of the entire move is the spot pic.twitter.com/7mAB2XMvUh
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 2, 2023
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, a monitoring resource, release A snapshot of Binance’s order book, showing $28,000 is the main hurdle to overcome following this move.
Bitcoin him Add toIt is currently battling resistance at the 200-week moving average, which is around $27,970 as of this writing.
“Resistance is expected to hit again this month, but since I’m still in ‘buy the dips, sell the dips mode,’ I’m going to stick to the rules, take the quick money and look for the next setup,” came the comment.
“Volatility is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.”
The classic “Uptober?”
Bitcoin has started October with a strong performance that is a departure from last year.
As Cointelegraph reported, the 0.7% drop in Bitcoin prices heralded the start of statistically the strongest month for Bitcoin price gains.
The following month was surprisingly sideways, culminating in the collapse of FTX, sending the cryptocurrency market to two-year lows late in the fourth quarter.
This time around – so far – it feels different, more like the classic “Uptober” from years past. According to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, BTC/USD did not end October lower than where it started for the first time in 2018.
While discussing the topic, popular market commentators happily conveyed the spirit of 2021 – a year in which instead of hitting multi-year lows, Bitcoin hit new all-time highs in the fourth quarter.
Happy to those celebrating.
Remember 2021? pic.twitter.com/qgHy1ThGOf
— Wolf on the Street (@scottmelker) October 2, 2023
Popular trader Jeller went a step further, suggesting that Bitcoin is in the midst of a more significant trend change.
“Bitcoin broke the mid-term downtrend, retested it, and is now embarking on its next leg up,” he Announce There is an explanatory diagram next to it.
“A strong finish to the week and most charts look like we will move higher this week. Welcome to Uptober.”
Previously, Jelle, like Van de Poppe, believed that BTC/USD could happen this month Over $30,000 for the first time since June.
Popular analysis account Stack Hodler said: “8 out of the past 10 months have been positive for Bitcoin” wrote He noted in his analysis on Oct. 1 that, on average, returns during that time were 22%.
Difficulty drops as it hits all-time high
In contrast to the norm in recent months, Bitcoin network fundamentals are not mimicking bullish sentiment in the spot market.
The latest forecast from data resource BTC.com suggests that, on the contrary, the difficulty will drop by 0.7% during the next automatic adjustment on October 2.
Currently at all-time highs, the last time difficulty rose by nearly 6%, BTC’s price performance was markedly uncertain.
As Cointelegraph reported in September, miner competition remains fierce, and the surge in hash rates highlights the changing environment as miners make long-term commitments to the network in the name of profitability.
With hashrate (the estimated processing power deployed to the network) also higher than ever, the classic mantra “price follows hashrate” is back in the spotlight.
Not everyone is convinced by this statement, and some of Bitcoin’s most respected names believe the opposite is true — that hashrate actually follows price.
Among them is Jameson Lopp, co-founder and chief technology officer of Bitcoin storage company Casa.
Hashrate follows price. Some people think that price follows hashrate, probably because hashrate doesn’t simply track ~spot~ prices, but rather some ~speculative~ future prices. Miners are speculators too!
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) June 23, 2018
In a blog post published over the weekend, Lopp unveiled the results of his efforts to more accurately predict hash rates.
“By blending many hashrate estimates together and weighting them based on the most recent estimate and various tracking data timeframes, we improved the 1100-block estimate fairly easily, bringing the average error rate down by 13% and lowered the standard deviation by 14%,” he concluded.
Depending on the resources used, hash rate values can vary greatly, with only a general trend clearly visible to the observer.
Macro Diary Headlines from Fed Spokesperson
While Bitcoin got excited during the first week of October, the same could not be said for U.S. macro data, as the month started on a quieter note.
The main potential event this week has arguably already happened, as lawmakers averted a government shutdown at the last minute.
Aid to Ukraine became a sticking point but was dropped in favor of a cross-agency deal.
The U.S. Congress just passed a plan to avoid a U.S. government shutdown.
This could calm down the stock market and give us some green candles next week! This is a short-term 45-day emergency extension.
— Seth (@seth_fin) October 1, 2023
When it comes to this month’s outlook, financial commentary resource Kobesi Letter focuses on upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Markets will continue to focus on official language for clues before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 1 to decide on interest rate policy.
“The next Fed meeting is just a month away. With 13 Fed speakers this week, we expect more volatility,” Kobeissi concluded on X.
The next Fed meeting is in exactly one month.
With 13 Fed speakers this week, we expect more volatility.
We’ll be posting this week’s deals soon.
In 2022, our call rate reached 86%.
Subscribe to access our analysis and see what we’re trading: https://t.co/SJRZ4FrfLE
— KobeissiLetter (@KobeissiLetter) October 1, 2023
Latest data from the CME Group’s Federal Watch Tool showed mixed views on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision. The market currently sees a 62% chance of interest rates remaining at current levels.
Analysts positive on USD liquidity
At the same time, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro looked at related macro phenomena and pointed out the liquidity trend in the United States and its impact on future Bitcoin price trends.
Related: Will Bitcoin ‘Uptober’ Bring Gains to MKR, AAVE, RUNE, and INJ?
The relationship between global liquidity and risk asset performance is well documented – especially given the volatility that has occurred since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Late last week, the Tedtalks macro showed a divergence between USD net liquidity and BTC/USD.
— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) September 29, 2023
In the accompanying analysis, he argued that measuring the delta in “direct liquidity” could provide better insight. He expressed his appreciation for Bitcoin’s prospects.
“The bottom line is that the path of least resistance is sideways now/higher from here over the next few years…but the huge risk remains (at least for a few quarters) that you’ll get chopped off before prices move up quickly ,” he wrote.
Direct measures of liquidity are not that useful for informing investment decisions and tend to lag, but measuring incremental or weekly or monthly changes are more effective.
Since the liquidity side is usually ahead, at least compared to BTC price… pic.twitter.com/1DvE7xInxC
— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) September 29, 2023
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should do their own research when making decisions.