The global market for new weight-loss drugs such as Novo Nordisk A/S’s Ozempic and Wegovy is expected to reach $100 billion by 2035 as patients begin to understand how effective the drugs are.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman said in a note to clients late Thursday that revenue from these drugs could be as high as $70 billion in the U.S. alone.
Wall Street’s interest in all things weight-loss related has been rising after a study from Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy showed the drug could reduce the risk of heart disease and stroke. The findings sent shares of drugmaker Eli Lilly & Co. soaring and remains the best-performing drug stock in the S&P 500 so far this year.
Seigerman believes Eli Lilly is best positioned to dominate the U.S. market in the 2030s. Eli Lilly and Co.’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide), already approved to treat diabetes, would set the stage for weight loss treatments by the end of the 2030s if the drug is approved to treat obesity by the end of the year, he said. .
“We are seeing changes in the U.S. payment and reimbursement environment and widespread data-driven, medical, political, regulatory and cultural support for widespread access to obesity treatments,” Segelman wrote.
Morgan Stanley analysts predicted in early August that the global obesity market would reach US$77 billion in 2030, higher than the previous estimate of US$54 billion.