Surprisingly, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced on Tuesday, September 26, that it would postpone the ARK Invest and 21Shares Bitcoin Spot ETF applications in advance, with a decision originally scheduled for November 11. Regulators postponed a decision on the GlobalX ETF application that was originally scheduled for October 7.
After making this decision, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart said: Express He expressed surprise on Twitter: “The SEC’s early announcement of a delay in filing for the ARK Invest/21Shares Bitcoin ETF…could dampen hopes of an ETF being approved this year? If they were already on Ark/21 shares Listing, we may see delays in all other filings today as well?”
With multiple applications scheduled to be submitted by mid-October, including BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, Invesco, Wisdomtree, Fidelity and Valkyrie, the prospects for ETF approval appear uncertain.
Bitcoin spot ETF odds are on trial
Seyffart did not hesitate to speculate on the potential implications behind the SEC’s decision. He pointed to a letter sent to SEC Chairman Gensler from Republican and Democratic members of Congress. In the letter, Congressmen Mike Flood, Wiley Nickel, Tom Emmer, and Ritchie Torres stressed the importance of “immediate” approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, emphasizing that this regulated investment path will ensure more transparent and secure access to Bitcoin. to enhance investor protection.
Their letter refers to the court decision in the case between Grayscale and the SEC: “Congress has a responsibility to ensure that the SEC approves investment products that comply with the requirements set forth by Congress. To this end, we urge you to immediately approve spot Bitcoin ETPs listing.”
Looking further into the possibility of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved, Seyffart cited his previous prediction: “Before this our forecast was 75%. It’s likely to go down because of this.” However, he said the Grayscale GBTC court case remains is the main factor that determines these odds. “The main catalyst in 2023 is always what happens next in the GBTC court case,” Seyffart said.
Earlier this year, Bloomberg experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart estimated a 75% chance of approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF in 2023 and a 95% chance of approval by the end of 2024, especially after Grayscale’s legal victory over After SEC.
When asked about the timeline for the GBTC court case, Seyffart responded: “Unknown. That’s why things are kept up in the air. We should have a better idea of next steps by October 13th at the latest.” SEC on Grayscale The window for appeals against the August court victory will close on October 13, a date closely watched by many as a potential turning point.
Another industry perspective coming Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store and host of the ETF Prime Podcast, hinted at a broader contextual issue: “The government shutdown could impact spot Bitcoin ETF decisions expiring in October… More than a decade later, it’s still a few months away ?” view. “
The government shutdown Geraci mentioned is coming and could cause further delays. The U.S. Senate recently passed a bipartisan initiative to avert a government shutdown, Reuters reported yesterday, but the outcome has yet to be determined. Notably, the looming closures complicate an already complex regulatory environment.
At press time, Bitcoin prices were unaffected by the news, trading at $26,278.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com