The Atlantic hurricane season reached its climatological peak on September 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean less activity will follow.
There have been 14 named storms so far this season, with the latest, Nigel, intensifying into a hurricane on Monday.
This results in an above-average and active season, as we typically don’t reach the number of designated storms until November. With just over two months left in the hurricane season, here’s a rough look at the rest of the season as of September 18.
After a quiet period from late July to late August, there has been a noticeable increase in activity in the Atlantic Ocean over the past three weeks. ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith previously reported on this, noting the impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). To recap, the MJO is a wave-like pattern that expands across the globe and moves slowly from west to east. In fact, it can influence local weather patterns, especially in the tropics, through areas of rising or sinking movement.
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Throughout September, there is an area of rising motion over the Atlantic Ocean that contributes to tropical development. The result: eight tropical storms formed in the Atlantic, two of which were localized in the Gulf of Mexico. There were 10 storms in less than a month.
Most of the activity is in the mid/eastern Atlantic, with several storms following similar paths through the mid-ocean. This also reflects a typical El Niño season, with storms developing west of the African coast and lingering east of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Now, there are some signs that tropical activity in the Atlantic may slow down in the coming weeks, but won’t disappear entirely. The MJO suggests that the area of sinking motion currently over the eastern Pacific and limiting tropical development there may move into Central America, the Caribbean and parts of the deep tropics in late September. While this won’t completely restrict activity on either side of the Atlantic, it will keep tropical areas of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean quiet. But whatever the rest of the month holds, continued wind shear from the jet stream will likely keep the Gulf region quiet.
However, long-term climate models also suggest that the MJO may enter a different phase in early October. If so, rising movement in Mesoamerica and selection in the Caribbean could have contributed to the development of the tropics, if that were to occur. Additionally, this is also the time of year when we monitor the Bay of Campeche for any low pressure areas that may develop and become tropical. It’s definitely cause for concern, but there’s no reason to panic right now.
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